MLS MVP Rankings: Dreyer Surges, Messi Chases

MLS MVP rankings sit at a fascinating crossroads as Major League Soccer reaches the midpoint of the 2025 campaign. With the FIFA Club World Cup distraction now over for all participating American sides, the league’s most influential stars have returned to domestic duty—and the chase for the biggest individual prize is wide-open.

MLS MVP Rankings Headline a Thrilling Midseason Narrative

The current MLS MVP rankings place San Diego FC winger Anders Dreyer at the summit. The Danish newcomer has turned an expansion project into a Western juggernaut, logging 12 goals and nine assists in just 18 league outings. His blend of high-octane pressing and ruthless finishing has pushed San Diego into the playoff picture far faster than even their own front office expected.

Trailing closely is Inter Miami talisman Lionel Messi. The reigning MVP missed six league matches while contesting the global stage but still owns an eye-popping per-90 line: 0.93 goals and 0.72 assists. If the Herons mount a late-season surge, voters will find it hard to overlook the Argentine icon’s enduring mastery.

Eastern Conference Heavyweights: Messi & Evander

Messi’s Impact in Fewer Minutes

Messi may rank second in the latest MLS MVP rankings, yet his efficiency is unmatched. Despite limited minutes, he has participated in 57% of Miami’s total goals. Advanced metrics back him too—his non-penalty expected goals plus expected assists (npxG+xA) leads the league at 0.88 per 90.

Evander’s All-Action Midfield Spark

FC Cincinnati’s Brazilian playmaker Evander remains in hot pursuit. Operating as a free-roaming No. 8, he has tallied seven goals, 10 assists and an 89% pass-completion rate. Crucially, Cincinnati have averaged 2.3 points per game when he completes 90 minutes, compared with 1.1 when he does not.

Western Conference Spotlight: Dreyer’s Expansion Heroics

San Diego FC were predicted to struggle for chemistry, but Dreyer changed the script quickly. Manager Landon Donovan hands the Dane license to drift inside, where his left-footed curlers have become appointment viewing. According to Opta, Dreyer’s 26 goal-creating actions top the West by five clear units. He also ranks first in progressive carries among wingers, underscoring a multi-layered threat that voters adore.

Supporting Cast Matters

Dreyer benefits from sharp secondary scorers—Memphis Depay and youngster Ricardo Pepi have combined for 15 goals—yet his fingerprints are on almost every attacking move. If San Diego clinch a top-three seed, the narrative component of the award tilts in his direction.

Dark-Horse Contenders Keep the Field Crowded

Sam Surridge Leading Nashville’s Revival

Nashville’s English striker has hit 11 goals, rediscovering the early-2024 form that prompted a club-record fee. His aerial dominance and clever hold-up play have reignited Hany Mukhtar’s improvisational genius, keeping the Coyotes hovering near the East’s top four.

Diego Rossi’s Quiet Excellence in Columbus

The Crew captain rarely tops weekly highlight reels, yet his chance-creation numbers rival anyone’s. Rossi’s 3.2 key passes per game rank second in MLS, and his ability to glide between lines gives Wilfried Nancy a tactical wild card every matchday.

What the Numbers Say About the 2025 Race

• Expected Goals Chain (xGC): Dreyer 14.7, Messi 13.9, Evander 12.1
• Goal Involvements per 90: Messi 1.65, Dreyer 1.35, Surridge 1.02
• Progressive Passes: Evander 134, Rossi 128, Messi 121

Statistics reveal a razor-thin margin. Dreyer currently edges Messi in total contribution because of availability, while Evander’s playmaking remains the league’s metronome.

Schedule Strength Could Decide the MVP

Inter Miami face nine of their next 12 matches at home, where Messi historically produces 0.25 more goals per 90. Conversely, San Diego embark on a brutal August road swing to Seattle, LAFC and Portland. Should Dreyer maintain his output across that gauntlet, the narrative—and the numbers—could prove decisive.

How Voters Tend to Think

The MLS MVP rankings often sway late, particularly when a club surges into Supporters’ Shield contention. In 2023, Mukhtar leaped from fifth to first in six weeks. Messi’s brand power cannot be ignored, yet the electorate has grown more tactically astute, rewarding availability and team impact.

Historical Precedents

• 2022: Sebastián Driussi—Carried Austin FC from last place to second overall.
• 2023: Hany Mukhtar—Led Nashville in both scoring and assists, played 32 matches.
• 2024: Lionel Messi—Set the single-season goal record, led Miami to trophy treble.

Dreyer’s place in that lineage would mark the first time an expansion-team player won the award.

Bottom Line: Who Leads the MLS MVP Rankings Right Now?

At the exact midpoint, Dreyer’s healthy body of work and San Diego’s unforeseen rise place him narrowly ahead. Messi, however, sits within striking distance and owns the softer run-in. Evander completes a balanced podium, while Surridge, Rossi and Cristian Espinoza lurk as late-season spoilers.

Opinion: Why This Race Matters

The 2025 MLS MVP rankings highlight the league’s evolution from star-centric hype to data-driven parity. Watching Dreyer, Messi and Evander trade brilliance weekly is a reminder that MLS now boasts both global icons and home-grown tactical sophistication. My gut says availability favors Dreyer, but if Messi’s Miami rattles off a double-digit unbeaten streak, the Argentine’s quest for back-to-back trophies could yet rewrite history.