USA v Guatemala Set for High-Stakes Gold Cup Showdown

USA v Guatemala kicks off the second round of the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup group stage on 2 July, promising a classic David-and-Goliath spectacle at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Both nations enter the contest with contrasting expectations yet identical ambitions: three precious points that could define their summer tournament.

USA v Guatemala: Gold Cup Stakes and Storylines

The United States arrive as defending champions and heavy favorites. Head coach Gregg Berhalter has blended veteran leadership with a wave of exciting European-based talent, hoping to secure an unprecedented fourth straight regional crown. Guatemala, meanwhile, relish the underdog role. Luis Fernando Tena’s squad has steadily improved since qualifying, building chemistry around an energetic midfield and a resilient back four.

Current Form Guide

United States

• Record in 2025: 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss
• Goals Scored: 19
• Goals Conceded: 5

Momentum is strong after a 3-0 warm-up victory against Colombia in June. Christian Pulisic is the tournament’s poster boy, yet the emergence of striker Folarin Balogun gives the attack a fresh dimension.

Guatemala

• Record in 2025: 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses
• Goals Scored: 11
• Goals Conceded: 9

La Bicolor dispatched Nicaragua 2-1 in their final friendly, with Rubio Rubín netting a brace. Confidence is higher than at any point in the last decade.

Key Players to Watch

Christian Pulisic (USA)

The captain’s pace, close control, and eye for goal make him the heartbeat of Berhalter’s system. Guatemala must track his drifting runs between the lines.

Tyler Adams (USA)

Recovered from injury, Adams’ ball-winning prowess should suffocate Guatemalan build-ups and initiate rapid transitions.

Rubio Rubín (Guatemala)

Fresh off a stellar MLS season, the striker’s movement across the front line is crucial to unlocking space behind the USA’s high defensive line.

Nicolás Samayoa (Guatemala)

Aerially dominant and tactically disciplined, the center-back will marshal the back four against Balogun’s clever runs.

Tactical Battle Lines

Berhalter’s favored 4-2-3-1 hinges on width from full-backs Sergiño Dest and Antonee Robinson. Expect the USA to overload flanks, aiming to drag Guatemalan defenders wide before exploiting central channels.
Tena counters with a compact 4-4-1-1. The midfield duet of Oscar Santis and Rodrigo Saravia will try to clog passing lanes and spring counter-attacks through quick vertical balls. Transition management, therefore, becomes critical: the Americans must avoid over-committing, while Guatemala must gamble at the right moments.

Historical Head-to-Head

• Total Meetings: 27
• USA Wins: 17
• Guatemala Wins: 4
• Draws: 6

The most recent clash, a 2-0 friendly victory for the United States in 2023, showcased the gap in depth. Yet Guatemala famously stunned the Yanks 2-0 in World Cup qualifying back in 2016, proof that anything can happen in 90 minutes.

Stat Pack at a Glance

• Average USA possession in 2025: 61%
• Average Guatemala possession in 2025: 47%
• USA pass accuracy: 88%
• Guatemala pass accuracy: 79%
• USA expected goals per match: 1.92
• Guatemala expected goals per match: 1.14

Match Facts, Venue & Kick-Off Time

• Date: Wednesday 2 July 2025
• Kick-Off: 20:30 ET / 17:30 PT / 19:30 CT
• Stadium: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
• Capacity: 65,000 (expected sell-out)
• Referee: César Ramos (Mexico)

How to Watch and Follow Live

In the United States, FOX Sports and TUDN will televise the match in English and Spanish, respectively. Streaming options include the official FOX Sports app, FuboTV, and Paramount+. Guatemalan viewers can tune in via Tigo Sports and ESPN Central America. For real-time updates, the CONCACAF official website offers minute-by-minute commentary, line-ups, and in-game statistics.

Projected Starting XIs

United States

Turner; Dest, Richards, Ream, Robinson; Adams, McKennie; Pulisic, Reyna, Weah; Balogun

Guatemala

Nicholas Hagen; Moisés Hernández, Samayoa, Pinto, Morales; Santis, Saravia, Galindo, Cotán; Méndez; Rubín

USA v Guatemala: Predicted Outcome

Statistical models from Opta give the United States a 78% chance of victory, a 15% chance of a draw, and only a 7% chance for a Guatemalan upset. Expect the Americans to dominate possession and territory, but patience will be essential. Guatemala’s low block and quick counters could turn into nervy moments if the score remains level after halftime.

Betting Odds (Subject to Change)

• USA win: 1.28
• Draw: 5.50
• Guatemala win: 10.00
• Over 2.5 goals: 1.70
• Both teams to score: 2.20

What’s at Stake Next?

Three points could virtually assure the United States top spot in Group B before facing Trinidad & Tobago. Guatemala, currently projected to fight with Curaçao for second, knows any point stolen tonight could be decisive for quarter-final qualification.

Injury and Suspension Update

USA: Yunus Musah (hamstring) remains sidelined, while Zack Steffen is back in full training.
Guatemala: Defender José Arévalo serves a one-match suspension for accumulated yellows; midfielder Marvin Ceballos is day-to-day with an ankle sprain.

Expert View

Alexi Lalas, FOX analyst, believes “the speed mismatch on the wings will overwhelm Guatemala,” while retired Guatemalan legend Carlos Ruiz counters that “emotional intensity and disciplined defending can keep the scoreline respectable and maybe spring a shock.”

My Take

Although the talent gap is evident, tournament football rewards organization and belief. Guatemala have nothing to lose; the USA must guard against complacency. Expect a cagey first half before depth and pace tip the scales.

Opinion: The encounter offers a litmus test for both programs—one aiming to consolidate continental supremacy, the other desperate to announce its revival. A professional performance from the United States should see them through, but a spirited Guatemala could turn this into the match of the round. Neutral fans, buckle up.