Portugal v Italy: Women’s EURO Clash on 7 July

Portugal v Italy will light up Nijmegen on 7 July 2025 as the Women’s EURO group stage reaches its most decisive round. Both nations arrive knowing three points could all but seal a quarter-final ticket, yet their routes to this high-stakes date could not be more different. Portugal, buoyed by a generation that lifted the 2023 U-19 crown, have grown into dark-horse status, while perennial contenders Italy seek to reassert their pedigree after an erratic qualifying campaign.

Portugal v Italy: Key Match Facts

• Kick-off: 19:00 CET, Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
• Referee: Stéphanie Frappart (FRA)
• Current standings: Portugal 2nd (3 pts), Italy 3rd (1 pt)
• Last meeting: Portugal 1-0 Italy (friendly, April 2024)

Form Guide Heading into Portugal v Italy

Portugal Riding a Surge

Francisco Neto’s side opened Group C by edging Sweden 2-1, controlling 58 % possession and completing 480 passes—both national tournament records. Jessica Silva’s searing pace from the right flank remains the primary outlet, while Diana Silva’s aerial prowess complements Telma Encarnação’s mobility up front.

Italy Seeking Consistency

Le Azzurre salvaged a 2-2 draw against Belgium thanks to late leveller Cristiana Girelli, yet concerns linger. Defensive lapses conceded 15 shots, and the midfield double pivot of Manuela Giugliano and Arianna Caruso struggled under pressure. Coach Andrea Soncin may revert to a 4-3-3 to add a stabilising third midfielder.

Projected Line-ups

Portugal (4-3-3)

Morais; Costa, Borges, Mendes, Amado; Dolores Silva ©, Nazareth, Tatiana Pinto; J. Silva, Encarnação, Diana Silva.

Italy (4-3-3)

Durante; Bartoli, Linari, Cecotti, Boattin; Giugliano, Caruso, Greggi; Bonansea, Girelli ©, Cantore.

Tactical Battle: Wings vs Midfield Diamond

Expect Portugal v Italy to pivot on flank supremacy. Portugal stretch opponents horizontally, creating half-spaces for Nazareth’s forward surges. Italy, conversely, thrive when Bonansea cuts inside to overload central zones. Linari’s diagonal distribution could bypass Portugal’s press, but the risk of turnovers is high—Portugal scored nine goals in qualifying from transitions within ten seconds of winning possession.

Set-Piece Danger

Both sides are lethal off dead balls: Portugal have converted five of their last 12 corners, while Italy possess Girelli’s near-post flick and Linari’s back-post threat. Defensive organisation during the second phase will be non-negotiable.

Head-to-Head Record

Portugal v Italy has historically favoured the Azzurre—Italy lead the series 6-3-1—but Portugal’s recent uptick is noteworthy. The April 2024 friendly saw Portugal dominate territory and xG (1.7 vs 0.6). Momentum, therefore, might finally tilt Iberian.

Players to Watch

Portugal: Andreia Norton

Often overshadowed by flashier forwards, Norton’s vision between the lines remains Portugal’s creative heartbeat. Her 0.32 expected assists per 90 tops all Portuguese players in the last 12 months.

Italy: Valentina Giacinti

Projected to enter as an impact substitute, Giacinti’s vertical runs behind high lines could expose Portugal’s slightly ponderous centre-backs. She boasts 18 league goals for Roma this season, 40 % from one-touch finishes.

Stat Zone

• Portugal average 14.3 shots per game in 2025, conceding only 8.9.
• Italy’s pass completion drops 6 % when pressed by three or more opponents.
• Portugal v Italy meetings have produced 2.4 goals on average.
• In qualifying, Portugal conceded just two first-half goals in ten matches.
• Italy have scored in 15 consecutive EURO fixtures, the tournament’s longest active streak.

Manager Quotes

Francisco Neto, Portugal

“We respect Italy’s tradition, but this team believes in its identity—possession with purpose and the courage to press high.”

Andrea Soncin, Italy

“Portugal have improved technically, yet we intend to dictate tempo. The key will be balance when we commit numbers forward.”

What a Result Means

A Portuguese victory would lift them to six points and likely secure progression before facing Belgium. Italy, on the other hand, cannot afford defeat; a loss could leave them needing a final-day miracle against powerhouse Sweden. A draw keeps both hopeful yet hands initiative to other group rivals.

Portugal v Italy Prediction

Expect a tense opening 20 minutes as Italy test Portugal’s build-up with an aggressive press. Once nerves settle, Portugal’s cohesive midfield triangles should regain control. If Italy isolate Bonansea against the relatively inexperienced Joana Costa, they may unlock opportunities, but Portugal’s bench—featuring Kika Nazareth and experienced winger Cláudia Neto—offers game-changing options.

Predicted score: Portugal 2-1 Italy.

How to Follow Live

Goal Sports News provides minute-by-minute coverage, real-time statistics, heat maps, and post-match xG analyses. Television broadcasts are available on RTP 1 (Portugal) and RAI 2 (Italy), with global streaming on UEFA.tv.

Travel & Fan Info

The Goffertstadion welcomes 12,500 supporters. Trains from Amsterdam run every 30 minutes, and additional shuttle buses depart Nijmegen Central two hours before kick-off. UEFA’s Fan Festival in Kronenburgerpark offers live music, food stalls, and big-screen action from other group games.

Historical Context Adds Spice

Portugal v Italy at women’s senior level has never occurred in a major finals—another incentive for both camps to stamp their legacy. For Portugal, advancing would match their best ever tournament showing. Italy, twice runners-up (1993, 1997), crave a return to the continental summit.

Key Numbers to Remember

• 74 % – Portugal’s possession share against Sweden, highest at EURO 2025 so far.
• 10 – Consecutive competitive matches in which Italy have conceded first.
• 7 – Combined goals from set-pieces by both teams in the last five games.
• 4 – Portugal v Italy fixtures decided by a single goal since 2018.

Opinion: Portugal’s upward curve feels irresistible, but dismissing Italy’s big-game savvy would be foolish. A razor-thin margin—probably decided by midfield composure—should deliver one of the group stage’s standout spectacles.